Here’s how we handicap this year’s class of Rock & Roll Hall of Fame nominees and their respective chances of induction.

Oasis performs at Metlife Stadium in East Rutherford, NJ on September 1, 2025.
Harriet T K Bols
“As the pool of artists eligible for the Rock & Roll Hall of Fame continues to get more and more diffuse in its nominations — in terms of sound, geography and chronology — the inductees get harder and harder to predict,” we wrote in this prediction column for the 2025 class of nominees. And in 2026, that’s only getting exponentially truer.
How do we compare the induction chances of Luther Vandross, a late titan of R&B with continued relevance but not a ton of rock-world crossover cred, with the Black Crowes, a classic rock and roll band with a good half-decade run as ’90s rock superstars but no major mainstream moments in the past 30 years? Or with Shakira, or P!nk, two very different types of global pop icon for over a quarter-century who few would consider rock (but who both unquestionably rock)? Or with Iron Maiden, a metal powerhouse outfit with a seismic impact in the metal world for nearly half a century, but with only minimal radio or MTV presence for their entire run?
There are few obvious shoo-ins left for the Rock Hall at this point, and now every year is a recalibration of what matters most to voters — whether it be influence, popularity, singularity, endurance or just plain ol’ rocking. We’ll probably get a little bit of all of that in the Class of 2026, but here’s how we handicap each of the 17 nominees from this year’s shortlist, 10 of whom are on the ballot for the very first time.
(Disclaimer: Writer is now a voting member of the Rock Hall.)


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New Edition
New Edition certainly have the hits, the impact and the enduring cool to make a good Rock Hall case — but what the group doesn’t have is the right lineage. Perhaps we are heading towards a Rock Hall where someday soon, the biggest and best boy bands are able to elbow their way in; certainly, there are any number of vocal groups from the ’60s and ’70s who have been permitted entry. But Ronnie, Bobby, Ricky and Mike (and Ralph, and later Johnny) are probably still seen by a majority of rock voters as a touch too lightweight for admission their first time out.
Odds: 8 to 1
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P!nk
She’s a beloved pop-rock for figure for sure, but the timing seems off for P!nk to really make a credible case here — it’s been a little while since she’s had major hits or pop culture impact, but not quite long enough for us to really appreciate and take stock of her overall greatness in the meantime. She’s due for a big comeback moment and wave of re-appreciation sometime in the not-distant future, and that may end up giving her the legacy moment she really needs to launch a proper Rock Hall campaign. But it just doesn’t seem like 2026 is the right time for her.
Odds: 8 to 1
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Billy Idol
He’s on the ballot for the second year in a row, so he’s definitely got his supporters — and a better-than-expected 2025 album and bigger-than-expected accompanying tour has certainly helped him reach a higher level of visibility than he’s enjoyed in ages. Could the prototypical rock superstar end up a sentimental favorite this year? It’s not impossible, but he may still be something of a longshot.
Odds: 6 to 1
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INXS
Zoom out on the band’s story, and INXS seems to have the outline of of a classic Hall shoo-in: massively popular rock band with a handful of eternal pop hits, and a superhumanly magnetic frontman who died far too young. But for a variety of reasons fair and unfair, INXS has never quite inspired the rock-world reverence of crossover alt-rock peers like U2, R.E.M. or Depeche Mode, which is why the Aussie outfit has been Rock Hall eligible for over two decades and is is appearing on the ballot for the first time in 2026. Still: Which other 40-plus-year-old bands have basically gotten an entire Euphoria episode to themselves?
Odds: 6 to 1
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Joy Division/New Order
It’s the Manchester post-punks-turned-synth-poppers’ third time on the ballot — could they be headed for an honorary induction soon if they go down swinging again this year? Maybe: Joy Division and New Order have all the significance and classic works you could ask for from a band of their era, but there’s not likely ever to be a particularly great answer to the question “Why now?” with them. They’re unquestionably deserving of entry, but may have difficulty ever getting over the top in the voting.
Odds: 6 to 1
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The Black Crowes
You never want to count out a group as dead-center rock-and-roll as The Black Crowes, and all the reasons we liked them as a potential sleeper inductee last year certainly still apply this year. But the Brothers Robinson may just be doomed by being on the same ballot as those other ’90s rock hitmakers based around the magical and occasionally toxic chemistry of its core bro duo — and those guys had a slightly bigger past year than the Black Crowes did.
Odds: 6 to 1
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Jeff Buckley
How about being nominated for the Rock Hall for the first time and hitting the Billboard Hot 100 for the first time in the same calendar year? That might be an achievement unique to the singular career of ’90s singer-songwriter Jeff Buckley, whose narrative somehow continues to take wildly unpredictable turns almost 30 years after his tragic death at age 30. With a power and a mystique that’s made the jump from Gen X to Gen Z, the only thing that Buckley is really missing is catalog depth: As incredible a listen and influential a work as 1994’s Grace remains, can an artist with only one official LP released in his lifetime really demand votes over artists with decades of impactful releases to their name?
Odds: 5 to 1
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Luther Vandross
Boy, is this a tough one: On the one hand, the late Luther Vandross barely demanded any reverence or even attention from rock audiences during his lifetime, as a core R&B artist whose crossover success was impressive, but outside of perhaps a couple years in the early ’90s, hardly unignorable. On the other hand, he’s Luther, a performer and presence so towering within his field that not only is he still demanding tribute singles from some of the biggest recording artists in the world, but that his first name alone is explanation enough for the song title. The fact that said Kendrick Lamar & SZA tribute was the longest-reigning Hot 100 No. 1 of last year — and a big Grammy winner this year — certainly doesn’t hurt his timeliness here either. But man, it’s still a big ask of Rock Hall traditionalists to put him in on his first nomination.
Odds: 4 to 1
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Shakira
A global superstar who’s been around for 30 years and is as popular as ever in 2026, Shakira has as high an approval rating as any of this year’s nominees, and certainly has the resumé over her incredible recording career to match. The only question is how many Rock Hall voters love her enough to give her a spot over the more traditional rock artists whose albums they may be more immediately familiar with? She’s got a real shot, but she may need to do some campaigning to get voters to take her seriously enough.
Odds: 4 to 1
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Sade
Like Luther, Sade is beyond-iconic within R&B, but made few real-time inroads into the rock realm. However, Sade has something Luther doesn’t quite: Eternal hipness, which has made the band (and of course its eponymous frontwoman) a generational touchstone for music fans of pretty much all genres. That said, the outfit was nominated once already in 2024, then fell off the ballot entirely before returning this year: Can it get over the top in a year where there are so many soul artists on the ballot to choose from?
Odds: 4 to 1
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Wu-Tang Clan
Not a particularly traditional rock act either, but as a crew that’s been bringin’ the motherf–kin’ ruckus since 1993, it’s a lot easier to imagine rock fans making room on their ballot for the Wu-Tang Clan. Few rap groups ever seemed so much larger than life — few rap groups ever were so much larger than life in sheer number — and the timing feels right, following a well-received final American tour in 2025. The Rock Hall’s enthusiasm for rap can be hard to predict, but the Wu feels like a better bet than most.
Odds: 3 to 1
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Lauryn Hill
Speaking of artists with only one album to their name: Much of Lauryn Hill’s legacy is tied up in 1998’s The Miseducation of Lauryn Hill, so good thing for her that that album is widely considered one of the best ever made — even topping Apple Music’s headline-grabbing all-time top 100 list released two years ago. And while Hill’s reputation within the industry waxes and wanes, she’s in a pretty good place in 2026 following a triumphant Grammys performance that saw her leading a pair of all-star tributes to D’Angelo an Roberta Flack — and ’26 also happens to be the 30th anniversary of The Score, the Fugees set that first introduced her to mainstream audiences and confirmed her as a generational breakout star.
Odds: 3 to 1
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Mariah Carey
Third time’s the charm? Maybe following a well-received 2025 album, and a number of legacy-celebrating performances throughout the year. It remains a little surprising that the biggest recording artist and greatest pop star of the entire 1990s has gone 0-2 in her nominations thus far, so it’s hard to say with confidence that this year will be the one for her. But, like…. Mariah’s gotta get in sometime, right?
Odds: 3 to 1.
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Iron Maiden
It’s also Maiden’s third time on the ballot, but things may finally be shaking out right for them: For once, there are no traditional Boomer rock acts eligible for this year’s vote, which more traditionally minded voters may be more inclined to give the metal greats a second glance on their ballots than in past years. Should Eddie actually start to prep an induction speech? It doesn’t seem too far-fetched this year.
Odds: 5 to 2
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Melissa Etheridge
She’s been eligible for a decade-plus already, but Melissa Etheridge seems like a classic example of an artist who, once they finally appear on the ballot, seems like they should have been an obvious shoo-in all along. She’s an obvious trailblazer and dead-center rock artist, as well as a still-captivating performer and a massively well-regarded figure in the industry. She may have regrettably gotten shunted to the VH1 side of things during her commercial peak — but hey, so did Sheryl Crow, and Sheryl got in on her first nod a few years back.
Odds: 2 to 1
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Oasis
Well, we thought Oasis were a pretty good bet two years ago, and we dubbed them a near-lock last year — and both times they were left clapping in the audience. Surely, in 2026, after a sold-out worldwide stadium tour that saw them greeted as conquering heroes in multiple continents and every press outlet imaginable and even had former Beatles fanning out in the crowd, this will the year for Noel and Liam Gallagher? If not, the Rock Hall may risk awakening the ’96 BRITs in the bros.
Odds: Even money
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Phil Collins
Dozens and dozens of hits, work with everyone from Eric Clapton to Led Zeppelin to members of both The Beatles and ABBA, a drum sound that changed an entire decade’s sonic entity — even an annually celebrated Brooklyn holiday to his name? It tells you how uncool a reputation Phil Collins had developed during his ’80s commercial peak that with such an impressive Rock Hall resumé, he was never even nominated as a solo artist until this year. (He was inducted as part of Genesis in 2010.) But uncool fades away with time, and Phil Collins has weight enough even with rock snobs that his name should seem like something of a no-brainer for a good percentage of voters. You wouldn’t quite call him a lock — who knows, maybe to some voters he’s still the guy South Park was making fun of at the turn of the century — but he might be the closest thing on the ballot for this year.
Odds: Even money
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